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Global Economic Calendar Week Ahead August 12th 2024
The focus in the United States will be on the CPI and PPI reports, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Additionally, key data releases will include retail sales, Michigan consumer confidence, export and import prices, housing starts, building permits, and industrial production.
In the United Kingdom, it will be a busy week with the release of data on unemployment, inflation, GDP growth rates, industrial production, and retail sales. China will report on new yuan loans, the house price index, retail sales, and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, Q2 GDP growth rates will be announced for Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, and Thailand.
Interest rate decisions are expected from New Zealand, the Philippines, and Norway, while India will release its inflation rate and industrial production data. In Australia, the NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence will be released, and Germany will update its ZEW Economic Sentiment Index.
America
In the US, all eyes will be on inflation data and speeches by several Fed officials. The CPI report is expected to show a slight deceleration in the annual inflation rate to 2.9% and a slowdown in the core rate to 3.2%, marking the lowest levels since March and April of 2021 respectively.
Compared to June, both the headline and core CPI are anticipated to have risen by 0.2%, following a 0.1% fall and a 0.1% rise respectively in the previous period. Meanwhile, the PPI likely increased at a slower 0.1%, after a 0.2% advance in June. At the same time, retail sales are expected to rise 0.3%, rebounding from a flat reading in June.
Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1%, slowing from a surprisingly strong 0.6% increase in June. Other key data releases to keep an eye on include housing starts, building permits, preliminary figures for the Michigan consumer sentiment, consumer inflation expectations, NFIB Business Optimism Index, export and import prices, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
On the corporate front, the earnings season is coming to an end, but Home Depot, Cisco Systems, Walmart, Applied Materials, and Deere & Company are still set to release quarterly reports. Elsewhere in America, Brazil’s retail sales, Argentina’s inflation, and GDP growth figures from Colombia are also due.
Europe
In the United Kingdom, a series of crucial economic reports are due, including preliminary figures on second-quarter GDP growth, trade balance, manufacturing and construction output, unemployment, inflation, and retail sales. The UK economy is expected to grow by 0.6% in Q2, slightly slower than the 0.7% increase in Q1. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.3% in July, up from the BoE’s target of 2% for the previous two months.
The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase to 4.5% in Q2, and regular pay growth is expected to slow to its lowest level since May 2022. In Germany, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is likely to drop to a six-month low.
Second estimates are expected to confirm that the Euro Area’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2, consistent with Q1. Industrial production in the Euro Area is projected to rebound in June, showing the largest increase in six months.
Additionally, GDP data from the Netherlands and Poland will be released, along with trade balance figures for the Euro Area, wholesale prices for Germany, final inflation figures for France, and industrial activity data for Switzerland. On the monetary policy front, the Norges Bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged.
Asia
China will release industrial production, retail sales, housing prices, fixed asset investment, and its unemployment rate for July, set to give further insights into the magnitude of the economic slowdown in Asia’s largest economy.
Investors also await new loan aggregates from the period for the initial impact of the PBoC’s extraordinary rate cuts. In the meantime, Japan’s GDP is expected to rebound in Q2. Updates on capital expenditure and the GDP deflator are also due to impact future BoJ decisions, which have recently triggered selloffs through financial markets worldwide.
In India, base effects are expected to lower July’s headline inflation rate to below the RBI’s 4% threshold for the first time since 2019. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea will update its unemployment rate, the Philippines will decide on its monetary policy rate, and both India and Indonesia will post trade balances.
Australia
In Australia, markets will focus on a batch of labor market data for July, and Westpac consumer confidence index for August, and the NAB business confidence for July. In the meantime, the RBNZ is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged.
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