Welcome to the TPwithUS Forex Signal and Analysis Site! TPwithUS signals and analysis are based on Price actions, Gann Angels, and Astrology! Here we share the upcoming economic news in the third week of 2024 especially Economic news of the United States.
The impact of recent disturbances in the economy
Despite the turmoil in the world, including the Middle East conflict, capital and commodity markets have remained stable. Oil prices experienced a slight decline last week, while shipping costs increased due to the avoidance of the Red Sea and potential disruptions in the supply chain.
The slightly stronger-than-expected US December CPI, which included a rise in the core measure excluding housing, did not have a significant impact. Although some Fed officials, including Chair Powell, noted the increase (3.9% year-over-year), it did not change expectations for early rate cuts.
The futures market
The futures market now indicates a higher probability of a rate cut in March compared to after the January 5 jobs report. The market has priced in approximately 6.5 rate cuts for this year, which seems overly aggressive given the potential growth of the US economy above the estimated non-inflationary speed limit of 1.8% in Q4 2023, according to the Fed.
Is the dollar’s upward correction has come to an end?
After a sharp decline in the last two months of 2023, the US dollar has stabilized and traded within narrow ranges last week. It is uncertain whether the dollar’s upward correction has come to an end.
The G10 currencies are:
- Australian dollar (AUD)
- Canadian dollar (CAD)
- Euro (EUR)
- Japanese yen (JPY)
- New Zealand dollar (NZD)
- Norwegian krone (NOK)
- Pound sterling (GBP)
- Swedish krona (SEK)
Upcoming economic news of the United States:
The first week of 2024 was about the labor market
The first week of the year was about the labor market. Job growth is slowing gradually, and the initial estimates have consistently been revised lower. Still, average hourly pay rose by 4.0%-4.1% in Q4 23, down from 4.2%-4.3% in Q3. It continues to run ahead of inflation, which was the focus last week, the second week of the year.
Retail sales and industrial production in the real economy
This week, the focus is on retail sales and industrial production in the real economy. Vehicle sales in December exceeded expectations and are expected to boost retail sales. However, consumption appears to be slowing in the fourth quarter.
Industrial output is struggling, with a potential contraction in manufacturing output for the first time since Q4 2022. The housing market may have been affected by softer interest rates, with a likely decline in housing starts in December. Existing home sales are expected to remain flat.
on January 19, 2024
Recall that on January 19, the first set of bills that temporarily extended the federal government’s spending authority will expire unless than is congressional action. This will lead to a partial government shutdown. The remaining spending authorization expires on February 2.
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index was confined to around 35-40 pips around 102.40 settlement after the employment data on January 5. The sideways movement has begun stalling some momentum measures. We think the market is still too confident of a rate cut as soon as March.
The real sector data in the coming days may encourage some paring back of the aggressive wagers. Overcoming the 103 area could spur a test on the 200-day moving average near 103.40, and maybe 103.80-104.00.
Thanks for reading the Forex analysis about the Upcoming Economic news of the United States in the third week of 2024 with us, Be informed by the TPwithUS team, and take profit with us in the Forex market.
Source:http://www.marctomarket.com/2024/01/week-ahead-real-economy.html
