Week Ahead April 8th 2024

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Global News of Week Ahead April 8th 2024

This week, the United States will capture investors’ attention with its inflation rate and FOMC minutes. Adding to the watchlist are Michigan consumer confidence, Producer Prices, exports, and import prices, complemented by several speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Globally, interest rate decisions are on the agenda in the Euro Area, Canada, New Zealand, the Philippines, Thailand, and Israel. In China, the spotlight will be on consumer and producer prices, trade data, and new yuan loans. Similarly, inflation rates will be announced in Mexico, Brazil, India, and Russia. Europe will also focus on Germany’s foreign trade and industrial production and the UK’s February GDP reading and industrial production. Finally, Australia will release NAB business confidence and Westpac Consumer confidence data and Japan consumer confidence.

America 

The upcoming week in the US is headlined by the FOMC meeting minutes, the March CPI report, and the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for April. Investors will scrutinize March’s minutes, alongside speeches from several Fed officials, for further cues on the potential timing of interest rate cuts this year, especially in the wake of strong jobs data released this week. On the economic data front, headline inflation is poised to accelerate for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is expected to dip to 3.7%, its lowest level since April 2021. On a month-over-month basis, both headline and core rates are anticipated to advance by 0.3%, easing from 0.4% increases in February. Moreover, the consumer confidence index is expected to edge down to 79.0 in April from a near three-year high of 79.4 in the previous month. In addition, attention will be on producer and foreign trade prices, the government’s monthly budget statement, and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive time amidst ongoing risks on the inflation outlook. Key data to watch for includes Mexico’s inflation figures and Brazil’s CPI and retail sales reports.

Europe

In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to maintain current interest rates, but the meeting is seen as crucial in determining the likelihood of future rate cuts, with a focus on communication changes and indications of the cut size. On the economic calendar, Germany’s exports are forecasted to decline by 0.5% from an 11-month high, while imports are expected to fall at a faster 0.9%. Industrial production in Germany is likely to advance for the second consecutive month, and in Italy, it is set to rebound. In Russia, inflation is predicted to remain steady at a 1-year high of 7.7%. Other upcoming data include Germany’s final CPI data, France’s balance of trade and final inflation figures, Italy’s retail sales, Switzerland’s unemployment rate, and Turkey’s industrial output.  In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics will release monthly GDP figures, as well as industrial production, construction output, and trade balance data. The UK economy likely grew by 0.1% in February following a 0.2% expansion in January, with manufacturing production returning to growth.

Asia and Australia